Modesto migration, mapped
In 2022–23, 16,294 people moved into the Modesto metro and 17,387 moved out, a net of −1,093. Yellow arcs are people arriving, blue arcs are people leaving. Hover a dot to see the corridor, or click through to compare.
The map couldn’t load. The numbers below still tell the story.
† IRS methodology change in this year’s files (see methodology)
What the flows say
- Biggest published corridors: Stockton, CA leads both directions, with 3,474 people in and 2,933 out in 2022–23. The listed corridors cover about 74–84% of all flows; the totals count everyone.
- Trend: net outflow has eased over the last three years, from −1,648 in 2020–21 to −1,093 in 2022–23†.
Population · 2025
557,719
▲ 0.1% year over year · growing
Peak population
557,719
highest in the series shown (since 2000)
Why the population is changing
- Growth driver: the population grew in 2025 even after losing 2,425 people to domestic migration. International migration (+724) and births minus deaths (+2,007) more than made up for it.
- Peak population: the 2025 estimate of 557,719 is the highest on record, in data going back to 2000.
Net income flow · 2022–23
−$74M
▼ $536M arrived · $610M left
Avg household income · movers
$61k in · $62k out
similar incomes both directions
Modesto wealth migration
- Money moved: households moving into the Modesto metro in 2022–23 reported $536M in income (AGI). Households leaving took $610M with them, a net loss of $74M.
- Income gap: the average household moving in reported $61k of income, vs $62k for leavers. Arriving and leaving households report similar incomes.
About the data
Corridors are IRS county-to-county migration flows added up into metro areas (2023 Census metro definitions; exemptions ≈ people). "Rest of" entries cover a state's counties outside any featured metro. The IRS hides corridors with fewer than 20 returns, so the lists here cover about 84% of inbound and 74% of outbound movers in 2022–23. The in, out, and net totals count everyone. Income figures are the total income (AGI) movers reported, from the complete county totals. Dollars are not adjusted for inflation, and household averages divide by the number of returns. Population figures are Census Bureau estimates; the peak covers records since 2000. Years marked † had a change in how the IRS built the files. Full details on the methodology page.
Download this data (CSV), free to use with attribution.
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